Chris Wood, Global Head of Equity Strategy at Jefferies, continues to view Bitcoin as the digital equivalent of gold. In his latest GREED & Fear note, Wood emphasized that Bitcoin has long been seen as a store of value, but to solidify this status, it needed to decouple from the declining Nasdaq Composite.
“This has begun to happen,” Wood noted, referencing a significant shift in Bitcoin’s behavior over the past two weeks. Since 8 April 2025, Bitcoin has surged by 20%, while the Nasdaq Composite has dropped by 2.4%. This growing divergence marks a crucial step in Bitcoin’s evolution as a potential safe-haven asset.
Crypto Tracker
The GREED & Fear portfolio maintains a 5% weighting in Bitcoin, alongside a strong position in physical gold, both of which are viewed as stores of value during periods of market uncertainty. Gold, too, has been reinforcing its safe-haven status, benefiting from renewed investor interest amid ongoing geopolitical risks and volatility in Treasury markets.The report comes amid renewed concerns over US financial assets, fuelled by erratic policy signals from the Trump administration. A recent U-turn on tariffs by the president briefly triggered an equity rebound, but broader worries persist over inflation, rate uncertainty, and the direction of the Federal Reserve.
Pressure Builds in Bond Markets
US Treasury markets are flashing warning signals. Long-term yields have resumed their upward trend despite expectations of more Fed easing, with the 30-year yield now at 4.79%—a 96bps gap over the 2-year yield and the widest since January 2022 earlier this week.
Wood believes this points to a breakdown of traditional risk-parity strategies. “Investors no longer view long-term Treasuries as risk-free,” he wrote, calling this a “very big deal” that may lead to more unconventional measures such as yield curve control or even exchange controls in the long run.
Adding to the turbulence, the US Dollar Index has slipped below 100, and the dollar has depreciated 9% against the euro year-to-date—despite the European Central Bank cutting rates while the Fed remains on hold. Wood warns that any resumption of quantitative easing could further weaken the greenback.
Rising Recession Risks and Private Credit Stress
Beyond policy, Wood highlights growing strains in the private credit and private equity sectors. Moody’s recently warned that firms backed by private equity—many of which were acquired during the low-rate era of 2021–2022—are facing cash flow pressures. Around 15% of rated North American corporate debt is now B3 negative or worse, and half of it is tied to private equity, the agency said.
This, coupled with collapsing US imports from China—down 64% in early April, according to container booking data—has created a storm of uncertainty for corporates and markets alike. Chris Wood expects the Federal Reserve to resume easing once signs of “wealth destruction turning into credit revulsion” appear.
China Keeps Its Cool as Tariff Uncertainty Grows
While US policy remains in flux, China has opted for a more measured approach. Beijing has shown no rush to announce aggressive stimulus and has instead warned that it will retaliate against any trade deals that threaten its interests. At the same time, it continues to promote free trade and globalisation, with a message of incremental easing rather than panic policy.
Amid this geopolitical chess game, Bitcoin’s recent behaviour may be a telling sign. As Wood concludes, the more it trades like gold in a risk-off environment, the stronger its case becomes as a long-term store of value.
Also Read: Bitcoin surpasses Amazon in market value, now 6th largest global asset
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)